Japan has roughly 9 million abandoned homes, known as akiya, sitting empty across the country. That figure comes directly from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and represents about 14 percent of the nation’s entire housing stock. In some rural prefectures, vacant homes account for more than 20 percent of all properties. Some municipalities are listing them for a few hundred dollars. A few are giving them away entirely, with the only condition being that you move in and restore the property.

This is not a short-term disruption. It is a structural problem built over decades, and the number is expected to roughly double in the next 20 years.

Why It Happened

The causes compound each other in ways that make the problem stubborn to reverse.

Population decline and migration to cities. Japan’s total population has been shrinking since the mid-2000s and is expected to fall from roughly 125 million today to under 100 million by 2060. At the same time, younger generations have steadily relocated to Tokyo, Osaka, and other urban centers, leaving rural towns with aging populations and housing stock built for a larger headcount. When those homeowners die, their children are often cities away with no interest in returning.

Houses depreciate in Japan. This is the detail that surprises most people from outside Japan. A newly constructed home begins losing value immediately, and after 30 years, the structure is typically valued at close to zero. Only the land retains market value. This reflects both cultural norms and actual construction practices — Japanese homes have historically been built with lighter materials, expected to last a generation rather than a century. The result is that inheriting a house in rural Japan often means inheriting a liability, not an asset.

Inheritance laws that rewarded delay. For decades, Japan’s laws allowed property to remain in legal limbo without any requirement to register or deal with inherited homes promptly. Families could — and frequently did — simply do nothing. The house sat. Taxes on vacant rural land remained low. The cost of inaction was consistently lower than the cost of acting. The government amended its inheritance registration laws in 2023, now requiring heirs to register inherited properties within three years. It is too early to know how much that changes the pipeline.

Cultural preference for new construction. Japanese buyers have traditionally preferred newly built homes, and the second-hand market is thin compared to most Western countries. Even at deeply discounted prices, many akiya go unclaimed because the cultural assumption is that someone else’s old house is not something you want — regardless of price. This is a preference baked in over generations, and it does not reverse quickly.

What the Government Is Doing

Japan has created akiya banks — government-run registries where vacant homes are listed at steep discounts. Some municipalities have added renovation subsidies, relocation incentives, and cash payments for families who move into depopulating towns. A few have partnered with platforms to make the listings accessible to foreign buyers, since international interest has been building as word of the crisis has spread.

None of it has stopped the trend. The demographic forces are larger than the policy responses. Properties coming out of inheritance limbo are being partially offset by new properties entering it. The net number keeps climbing.

What This Has to Do With Real Estate Anywhere

The akiya crisis is an extreme case, but the underlying lesson applies broadly. Real estate value is not a physical property of land or buildings. It is a reflection of who wants to live somewhere, how many of them there are, and what cultural and economic conditions support demand. Change any of those factors significantly and values follow.

The premise that homes always appreciate — that property is the safest long-run investment — is built on a specific set of conditions: population growth, household formation, cultural preference for ownership, and sustained demand. Japan had all of those conditions in the postwar period. Then they changed. The homes did not.

Japan is not a cautionary tale for the American market in any direct sense. The demographic pictures are different. But it is a useful reminder that the conditions supporting home values are real conditions — not gravity. They can be counted on until they can’t.

FAQ

How many abandoned homes does Japan have? Approximately 9 million as of the most recent government survey from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, representing about 14 percent of Japan’s total housing stock. The number is growing.

What does akiya mean? Akiya is a Japanese term that translates roughly to “empty house” or “vacant house.” It refers to any home that has been left uninhabited, whether recently or for decades.

Can foreigners buy akiya homes? Yes, in most cases. Japan generally does not restrict foreign property ownership. Some akiya are listed through official municipal akiya banks and are accessible to foreign buyers, though navigating local government processes typically requires working with a local agent or intermediary who speaks Japanese.

Why don’t Japanese heirs just sell the homes? Several reasons converge. The structure is valued at near zero, so there is often no meaningful financial upside to selling. Rural properties may have a very limited buyer pool even at low prices. Clearing title and registering an inheritance added significant friction for decades (this is now changing with the 2023 law). And dealing with a distant property from a city far away is easy to defer indefinitely when the penalties for doing nothing are low.

Why are Japanese homes built to last only 30 years? Traditional Japanese construction has favored lighter wood-frame building for earthquake resilience, and cultural norms around rebuilding on the same land parcel developed alongside that. The preference for new construction over renovation reinforced the expectation of a short structural lifecycle. Because buyers have not historically wanted old homes, builders have not historically built homes meant to last centuries.

Is this only a rural problem? Mostly, but not entirely. Tokyo condominium prices have continued rising, partly driven by foreign investment and constrained supply. But even in large cities, certain neighborhoods have significant vacancy as older residents die and units sit in inheritance limbo. The crisis is most severe in rural and mid-size regional cities, but it is not entirely absent from urban centers.